In 2025, China’s auto finance market is at a critical juncture of profound change. Driven by the “dual carbon” goals, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles exceeding 48.9%, and the accelerated penetration of financial technology, the market size is expected to exceed 525 billion yuan, and the penetration rate of new car finance is approaching 73%. However, while the industry is welcoming trillion-level opportunities, it is also facing multiple challenges such as policy fluctuations, technological iterations, and global competition. This article will analyze the core contradictions and development paths of the auto finance market from the dimensions of market trends, technological changes, policy environment, and competitive landscape.
Electrification and financialization drive
In 2025, new energy vehicle finance will become the core engine of industry growth. On the policy side, the “old for new” policy plus green financial support will promote the issuance scale of green auto loan ABS to 35%, and the financing cost will be 10-20BP lower than that of traditional auto loans. On the technical side, the mass production application of technologies such as 800V high-voltage platform and solid-state battery has spawned the demand for special bonds for technological transformation of auto companies, and the face interest rate of related credit bonds is than 50BP lower than the industry average. On the market side, the penetration rate of new energy second-hand car finance has exceeded 45%, driving the rise of derivative services such as residual value assessment and battery health testing.
Automotive financial products extend from single loans to full life cycle services. The penetration rate of financial leasing models has jumped from less than 1% to 8%, and the combination of “battery leasing + whole vehicle purchase” has lowered the threshold for users to buy cars; the coverage rate of innovative products such as auto insurances installment and extended warranty installment exceeds 60%; the scale of auto loan ETF has exceeded 11.1 billion yuan, and the turnover rate has reached 1.65%, becoming an important tool for institutions to allocate short-cycle assets.
AI and quantum computing reshape industry logic
Intelligent risk control: A credit scoring model is built based on multi-dimensional user data (such as social behavior and consumption habits), and the bad debt rate is reduced by 30% compared with the traditional model;
Automated approval: RPA technology reduces the loan approval time from “days” to “minutes”, and a leading institution has approved than 100,000 loans per day;
Intelligent customer service: A virtual assistant driven by a large model handles than 80% of inquiries, and customer satisfaction has increased to 92%.